*ALERT!*

Subject: FW: Signficant Weather for 23 May 2011
Importance: High

Scenario: Currently a new Texas low has formed off the back of the low that passed through the area yesterday and is sitting to the WSW of the station with a dryline sitting over western Oklahoma through eastern Texas Panhandle region.  As the low and the dry line push to the ESE and multiple upper level troughs spin around the low, the possibility of severe weather moving into south-central Kansas is quite high this afternoon. We are looking for these storms to move into the region after 1300L this afternoon lasting periodically until 2200L this evening, with the sever potential from 1800L this afternoon through 2100L tonight.  Hail up to 3/4-1” is possible in some areas.

Potential Warnings/Watches/Advisories:  Potential Lightning within 5NM, Observed Lightning within 5NM/10NM, Forecast Surface Winds GTE 35KTs but LT 50KTs, and a Watch/Warning for Hail >= 3/4 in will be issued later this morning.

Current Warnings/Watches/Advisories: None.

Rain Expected: 1/2” to 1” could be expected.

Event Timetable
Current-24/1300L     Partly to Mostly Cloudy, 63-72F, Winds VRB06KT
24/1300L-24/2200L    Overcast 73-81F, Light Rain Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms, Winds 14015G25KT  
24/1800L-24/2100L    Overcast, 77-80F, Rain Showers and Isolated Severe Thunderstorms, Winds 12025G35KT
24/2200L-25/1000L    Mostly to Partly Cloudy, 76-61F, Winds 22015KT

V/r
Kelly T. Tobin, SSgt, USAF
Weather Forecaster, 22 OSS/OSW